 |
Forecasting |
| DECISION 411 |
 |
Spring 2005 - Term 4 |
|
This course will cover a variety of statistical forecasting methods that are applicable in many functional areas of business, including simple and multiple regression, exponential smoothing, seasonal decomposition, and ARIMA models. The emphasis will be on learning to apply these methods to real data using a full-featured microcomputer statistics package (Statgraphics) and a spreadsheet package (Excel). The course objective is for you to gain competence in using these forecasting methods as well as in general statistical data analysis and computer modeling. By the end of the course you should know how to collect data from diverse sources, massage it into a form which can be analyzed on the computer, perform various kinds of exploratory data analysis, and ultimately generate forecasts from it by selecting and fitting an appropriate statistical model. We will also discuss some of the managerial issues surrounding the use of forecasting models in business and the challenges posed by recent dramatic developments in the U.S. and global economies. Concepts of time series analysis introduced in this course should prove helpful in courses and professional work in finance, marketing, operations, and consulting.
- Syllabus
- Course outline (including links to lecture notes)
- Class 1: Get to know your data
- Class 2: Introduction to forecasting
- Class 3: Modeling of seasonality
- Class 4: Averaging and smoothing models
- Class 5: Regression to mediocrity
- Class 6: Time series regression models
- Class 7: Regression continued
- Class 8:
Advanced regression methods, GLM and ANOVA
- Class 9: Introduction to ARIMA models
- Class 10: ARIMA continued; seasonal models
- Cl;ass
11: ARIMA with regressors, sales of new products
- Class 12: Automatic forecasting; political, ethical, and management issues
- On-line data at Economagic.com (site license entry)
- Other Fuqua databases
- How to set up a proxy server (for off-campus access to Economagic and other databases)
- More Economics, Statistics, and Forecasting Resources on the Web
- Decision
411 newsgroup