How to avoid trouble

• Follow good modeling practices (use sensible models, check their residual diagnostics, question their assumptions, perform out-of-sample validation, etc.)

• Leave a paper trail--i.e., keep well-annotated records of your model-fitting efforts. Someone else (who may be a sharp-penciled auditor--or perhaps only yourself 12 months hence) may need to reconstruct what you did.

• Other things being equal, KEEP IT SIMPLE (and intuitively reasonable if at all possible).

• Neither overstate nor understate the accuracy of your forecast. Always report confidence intervals.

• If different forecasting approaches lead to different results, call attention to potential differences in their underlying assumptions, their sources of data, their intrinsic biases (if any), and their respective margins for error.

• If YOU believe your model, stand by it! Integrity and commitment earn respect in the organization. (If you don't believe your model, go back to the drawing board.)