America, the Refugees, and the Political Future of Afghanistan

by Joseph M. Grieco

One of the big challenges facing the United States and its partners in the war against international terrorism is to ensure that a post-Taliban Afghanistan will be legitimate at home and responsible abroad.

The first major elements of a U.S.-backed political plan for that country have come into view in recent days. The former king, Mohammad Zahir Shah, and the loose-knit Northern Alliance have agreed to establish by the end of this month a Supreme Council for the National Unity of Afghanistan. The Supreme Council, composed of 120 persons, will serve as an interim government once the Taliban are displaced, and will arrange for a "Loya Jirga," an all-Afghan National Council that will determine the long-term political regime for the country.

Current reporting suggests that the king and the leaders of the Northern Alliance will determine who are to be the 120 members of the Council. At present, it appears that many or most of the members will be from the Northern Alliance and other armed militias that have fought the Taliban, with some representation accorded to international Afghan exiles.

The problem is that, for many years, the leaders of the Northern Alliance and the other anti-Taliban militias have shown they are unable to work together to develop a stable governing authority for Afghanistan. Moreover, many if not most of these leaders ultimately have relied upon the gun, and not upon principled persuasion, as the ultimate source of their power.

To ensure that the proposed Supreme Council and the Loya Jirga will be composed of a wide range of Afghans, including persons who have a demonstrated capacity to work with others with reason and without recourse to force, the United States and its partners should turn to the Afghan refugee camps.

About 3.5 million Afghans are currently in refugee camps in Pakistan and Iran. Another 1.5 million Afghans may soon be seeking shelter in those two countries, as well as in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Within a short time, one in six Afghans may be beyond the grasp of the Taliban or any other armed Afghan group.

The Afghans in refugee camps in Pakistan have created, through peaceful means, self-governance committees that are responsible for day-to-day camp matters. In doing so, they are drawing from their long-standing tradition of "shuras," consultative bodies composed of elders.

Most important, the Afghans who are active in those camp committees have demonstrated they can work together and can get necessary, important things done in the camps without relying upon violence. They can, in other words, conduct normal politics. If they can so work together effectively in the camps, in the most difficult of conditions, then there is a good chance they could be very good at peaceful politics in less stressful, more secure circumstances.

Moreover, there is evidence that Afghans refugees can work together on an inter-camp basis. In 1994, Afghan tribal elders from numerous camps in Pakistan agreed upon a joint petition calling upon the UN to help resolve conflicts among the armed Afghan militias. In recent days, the refugees from many camps organized a meeting at Peshawar at which they expressed support for a role for the former king in a future Afghan transitional government.

The Afghan self-governance committees could then serve as strong foundations for a broad-based Supreme Council and Loya Jirga in the near term, and a new, more peaceful politics in Afghanistan in the long run. The United States should therefore:

-- Ensure that Pakistan open its borders as soon as possible to the growing number of Afghans seeking entry into that country, and ensure there are sufficient resources to run current and future camps there and elsewhere in a secure, humane manner.

--Ensure that Afghan self-governance committees are formed in all current or new refugee camps.

-- Help these committees establish larger inter-camp political coalitions.

-- Ensure that representative of those inter-camp political coalitions are included both in the Supreme Council and any future Loya Jirga.

If the United States is successful in helping the Afghan people construct a stable, peaceful, and responsible government for their country, then this by itself will reduce the future risk of world terrorism. Moreover, such a success in Afghanistan will send a powerful message to all regimes now harboring terrorists that they cannot have both a commitment to terrorism and a secure future in power.