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Probabilities Some counterintuitive problems... |
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The Monty Hall Problem |
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The Canonical Version: You are shown three identical doors. Behind one of them is a car. The other two doors conceal goats. You are asked to choose, but not open, one of the doors. After doing so, Monty, who knows where the car is, will open one of the two remaining doors. He will always opens a door he knows to be hiding a goat. After he opens one of the doors and shows you the goat, he will give you the option of either sticking with your original choice or switching to the other door he did not open. You will then receive whatever is behind the door you open What should you do? |
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X |
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The Probabilities: a) Stick with the first door you choose and have a 33% probability of winning the car. Why? Before the game begins you know there is a probability of 33% that the car is behind the door you originally choose. These statistics are borne out by the actual TV show, by classroom experiments and by computer simulations. For further explanation, see Jason Rosenhouse, THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM, Oxford University Press (2009), pp. 35-36. |
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