At the convergence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers in California lies The San Francisco Bay estuary, which is recognized throughout the country for its natural beauty, recreational activities, international commerce, and sports fishing opportunities (1). The San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary is vast, including the waters of San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and San Pablo Bay (2). It is the largest estuarine system on the United State's west coast and is home to an array of aquatic species, including many that are listed as Federally Endangered (3,4).
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The tourism industry in the San Francisco Bay Estuary is thriving due to the significant natural resources and beauty it has to offer. For example, in 1990, tourists spent $3.9 billion on recreational activities, which supported 66,000 jobs that year. This natural resource base sustains a significant commercial and recreational fishing industry in the estuary. In 1988, the commercial salmon fishery generated almost $42 million in landings prices. Annually, both charter and individual angling activities produce hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues for the recreational fishing industry (2).
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The United States Congress created the National Estuary Program in 1987 due to growing public concern over the decline of the nation's estuaries. The program's goal is to conserve the natural resources of the most environmentally significant estuaries throughout the country. This is accomplished by improving water quality and addressing the environmental concerns specific to each estuary in the program. Because of the importance of the natural resources in the San Franncisco Bay estuary, it was officially designated a National Estuarine Research Reserve as part of the National Estuary Program on August 27, 2003. Each National Estuarine Research Reserve must develop a Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan as instructed by Section 320 of the Clean Water Act. This management plan must recommend strategies that will restore and maintain water quality, continue to provide recreational activities in the estuary, maintain a balanced indigenous population of shellfish, fish, and wildlife, and protect the beneficial uses of the estuary (2).
The scientific community has studied the San Francisco Estuary intently in the past decades, due to concerns about the degradation of natural habitat, polution of the rivers and estuary, and declines in aquatic species populations (5). Much of this research has concluded that the effects of a warming climate on this system would include reduced snowpack storage, higher flood peaks during the rainy season (winter), and reduced warm-season flows after April. This lack of incoming freshwater would greatly impact the aquatic ecology of the estuary. These hydrologic changes would continue downstream to the estuary, changing the natural salinity regime. The many species that rely on the specific habitat that the estuary and rivers offer would be affected most during the spring and summer because of the lower quantity of freshwater flows and therefore increased salinity (3).
