THE RISE OF CHINA: SECURITY IMPLICATIONS

Dates: Friday, March 2 & Saturday, March 3, 2001

Location: Sheraton Hotel, Chapel Hill

Sponsors:

  • Duke Program in Asian Security Studies;
  • US Army War College;
  • and Triangle Institute for Security Studies (Duke-UNC-NCSU)

Goals of Conference: China boasts the longest continuing civilization in the world and for most of its history has been a major power on the world scene. Although China suffered a period of decline in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, recent decades have witnessed a possible resurgence of Chinese power. In the context of the post-Cold War era, this is of particular significance. The purpose of this conference is to examine the security implications of the rise of China for the international community in general and for the United States in particular.

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SCHEDULE

FRIDAY, MARCH 2, 2001

I. GREAT POWER TRANSITIONS: THE LESSONS OF HISTORY

Power transition theories often inform the judgments of policy makers. In this session, the panelists will consider under what conditions the rise of China could lead to conflict or to cooperation.

  • Kurt Campbell, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Joseph Grieco, Duke University
  • Peter Feaver, Duke University, moderator

10:30 - 11:00 BREAK

11:00 - 12:30

II. IS CHINA A SECURITY THREAT?

This panel will evaluate Chinese intentions and capabilities and assess the degree to which China poses a threat to international security.

  • Shu Guang Zhang, University of Maryland
  • Michael Chambers, Indiana State University
  • Jonathan Ocko, North Carolina State University, moderator

12:30 - 2:00 PM LUNCHEON

III ASIAN GREAT POWERS

Three great powers fringe China: India, Russia, and Japan. Three speakers will discuss the rise of China as it affects security within their own regions. A fourth speaker will consider the change in the balance of power from the Chinese perspective.

2:00-3:30

  • India: Sumit Ganguly, University of Texas
  • Russia: Yu Bin, University of Wittenberg, Ohio

3:30 - 4:00 BREAK

4:00-5:30

  • Japan: Tsuneo Watanabe, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • China: Susan Shirk, UC San Diego
  • Larry Kessler, UNC-Chapel Hill, moderator

5:30 - 6:30 RECEPTION

6:30 -9 PM BANQUET

7:30-8:30 Banquet Speech: Admiral Dennis Blair, Commander-in-Chief, US Pacific Command

SATURDAY, MARCH 3 7:45 - 8:30 AM

Continental Breakfast

IV. FLASH POINTS IN ASIA

Three key trouble spots in East Asia are the Taiwan Straits, the Korean Peninsula, and the South China Sea. South Asia has also emerged as a dangerous flash-point. These are regions where the balance could easily be tipped towards war, with disastrous implications for the world at large. The speakers on this panel will focus on the nature of the threat and how the changing balance of power in the region is likely to affect the problems.

8:30 - 10:00

  • Taiwan Straits: Emerson Niou, Duke University
  • Korea: Andrew Scobell, US Army War College

10:00-10:30 BREAK 10: 30-12:00

  • South China Sea: David Rosenberg, Middlebury College
  • South Asia:, John Garver, Georgia Institute of Technology
  • Ralph Thaxton, Brandeis, moderator

12:00 - 1:30 LUNCHEON 1:30 - 3:30 PM

V. SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS

Panelists will examine Sino-American relations, considering how US security interests are affected by the rise of China and evaluating what kind of policies the US should develop towards China

  • David Lampton, Johns Hopkins School of International Studies
  • Arthur Waldron, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Yixin Chen, UNC-Wilmington, moderator

3:30 -3:45 PM - CLOSING REMARKS

Format: Speakers are being asked give a twenty or twenty five minute presentation, and then engage in a brief discussion with fellow panelists (5-10 minutes) before engaging in a more extensive discussion with the audience (30 minutes).