Who Won? An Analysis of Ways in Which Kerry “Won” the First Debate

The first presidential debate was construed, before the event even began, as a do or die for John Kerry. Also, it was suggested by many that George W. Bush would overpower Kerry with his simple rhetoric and popular message. However, through my viewing of the debate and through the media's coverage of the debate, the overpowering occurred in the opposite direction. Throughout the debate Kerry was confident and sure of his position. Bush attempted to portray Kerry as a flip-flopper during the debate, however Kerry was able to overcome that unilateral attack, at least for the night. Instead of convincing viewers that Kerry was a flip-flopper, he made himself look confused and stubborn at times he had almost no response to Kerry's accusations and attacks. Overall, it seems as though Kerry won the debate by showing his strength as a leader while making Bush look less competent, and by displaying himself in a way that made the media also consider him the victor.

One of the biggest problems for Kerry going into the debate was that people were not confident in him; they thought that he was waffling in his ideas and was a weak leader. In this debate, Kerry convinced many that that portrayal was invented and promoted by Bush, yet it might not be true. Though I did not see the beginning of the debate, another viewer informed me that Kerry seemed uncomfortable and nervous when the debate began. However, as the debate continued, Kerry's comfort level seemed to improve, his speaking became more fluid and his overall appearance improved. Bush, on the other hand, apparently started off fairly strong. As I watched, his comfort level declined significantly. His ideas were repeated often and at times he seemed to run out of things to say at all. A few times, I felt as though he requested extra time and didn’t even say anything new. He stumbled over his words and was stubborn with his ideas, especially the idea that he was entirely right in Iraq and that Kerry is a flip-flopper. Even if the debate was watched on mute, Bush looked uncomfortable. Whenever Kerry was speaking Bush began to sigh, make faces, and look fairly unsatisfied with absolutely anything Kerry had to say. True, the media was not supposed to show Bush while Kerry was speaking, but they even stated that they were going to.

In most cases during this presidential race, Bush has seemed the more personable and confident person. His rhetoric, with his simple speeches and consistent ideas, has helped him to convince some people that he knows what he is doing and that he is a trustworthy and loyal leader. Kerry had not been using rhetoric very well; he spoke with more complicated ideas without relating very well to the general public, making himself vulnerable to attacks of being out of touch. However, in the debate Kerry was able to use his rhetoric to win over viewers. Bush's simple speech did not work as well in the forum of a debate. Instead of seeming purely confident and personable, he also seemed uninformed and bored. Kerry, on the other hand, used his more articulate speech to show viewers that he was intelligent, knowledgeable, and confident as a leader. His ideas on the war in Iraq and possible confrontations in North Korea and Iran seemed accurate, even when Bush tried to say that they were not. He spoke eloquently and responded well to what Bush was saying, including a rebuff of Bush's statement that the enemy attacked us first in Iraq. He made confident and direct statements including his statement that Bush "has made, I regret to say, a colossal error of judgment" regarding Iraq. Overall, Bush allowed his previously superior rhetoric to slip away while Kerry took his previously floundering rhetoric to strengthen and become an advantage during the debate.

In general, what I saw during the debate was reflected in the media. Immediately following the debate I was able to watch the beginning of Fox News's analysis. Usually Fox News is considered a very conservative and Republican-leaning source, however following the debate they made no attempt to declare Bush as the victor. Opinions ranged from neither candidate winning to Kerry enjoying a resounding victory. Many even stated that Kerry has started off nervously, yet throughout the debate he improved his confidence and ended powerfully, in accord with a previous statement from my fellow-viewer. Over the next few days, the opinion of the media seemed to shift. Instead of opinions ranging from a draw to a Kerry victory, most opinions portrayed a Kerry victory. This portrayal by the media also influenced the minds of the public, possibly because a lot of people either did not watch the debate or did not analyze the debate themselves, and possibly because the result was truly that clear. A sizeable majority on most media polls considered Kerry to be the victor, many articles declared Kerry victorious, and most importantly for Kerry, election polls shifted from a "double-digit" Bush lead back to dead even.

Overall, Kerry "won" the debate by using eloquent speech to portray himself as knowledgeable and intelligent. Bush helped Kerry by seeming uninterested or bored while Kerry was speaking and stubborn and confused while he was speaking himself. Even more important than whether or not Kerry would win the debate on points, as if the debate were scored as these events are in high school and college, Kerry was able to convince the media that he won. The media coverage of a victory was the most important result of the debate for Kerry. Media coverage of Kerry was previously surrounding a campaign gone awry and a flip-flopping, out of touch politician. Now that coverage is about a resounding victory in the first debate, instilling more confidence in Kerry in viewers and a rebound in the Kerry campaign. Kerry needed this win more as a resounding Bush victory may have knocked Kerry out of the race. Now, with the race supposedly back to even, Bush and Kerry need the next debate as much as each other. With expectations now higher for Kerry, he may have little to gain and everything to lose.