Do blackouts always suggest alcoholism?
        Blackouts occur quite often among alcoholics.  This fact led Jellinek (1946) to conclude that blackouts are one of the most powerful indicators of alcoholism.  However, the simple fact that alcoholics frequently report blackouts is not sufficient evidence to draw the conclusion that blackouts are key indicators of alcoholism.  Closer examination of this logic reveals a common error known as affirming the consequent.  Jellinek essentially stated, "Alcoholics have blackouts.  Therefore, if you have blackouts, you're an alcoholic."  This would be like stating, "Dogs have eyes. Therefore, if you have eyes, you're a dog".  Without question, blackouts are a warning sign that a person is drinking in a hazardous manner and might, in fact, have a serious problem with alcohol.  Blackouts should not be ignored.  However, the occurrence of a blackout alone does not indicate that a person is addicted to alcohol anymore than a sneeze alone indicates that a person has a cold.  Here is a brief review of two studies that bare relevance to this issue.
        Jennison and Johnson (1994) examined data collected in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY) to assess the incidence of blackouts among roughly 13,000 men and women in the general US population.  Data were analyzed at two time points, when subjects were between 19 and 26, and when the same subjects were between 23 and 30.   During the first time point, roughly 15% of all respondents reported experiencing blackouts.  Interestingly, while the incidence of blackouts was highly correlated with reports of alcohol-related problems (e.g., loss of control and problems at work), most respondents (68%) who reported blackouts during time point one did not report further blackouts during time point two.  This finding led the authors to conclude, in direct contrast to Jellinek's earlier assertion, that blackouts alone are relatively poor predictors of future alcoholism.
        A similar sentiment was echoed by Anthenelli et al. (1994).  Roughly 25% of the 230 men surveyed by the authors reported experiencing blackouts.  However, roughly 1/3 of these subjects did not report experiencing a single subsequent blackout when surveyed again 10 years later.  During the initial survey, the incidence of blackouts was associated with other alcohol-related problems (e.g., problems at work and an inability to stop drinking until intoxicated).  However, blackouts alone were fairly poor predictors of future alcohol-related problems.  Such findings led Anthenelli and colleagues to conclude that blackouts, by themselves, are not sensitive indicators of the risk for developing alcoholism, and that, while blackouts may be an important warning sign of problem drinking, they should not be viewed as the hallmark of alcoholism.
        To summarize, the available research suggests that blackouts, by themselves, are relatively poor predictors of alcohol dependence.  However, it is very important to be aware that blackouts often accompany other signs of problem drinking.  When taken together, this collection of signs can indicate a problem with alcohol.  At the very least, blackouts represent a dangerous state in which the drinker is typically extremely impaired and at great risk of doing harm to her/himself or others.  Blackouts should always be a cause for concern, and should force one to closely examine her/his drinking habits.  If you are concerned about your drinking, or the drinking of someone you know, I highly recommend exploring this possibility further.  A great place to begin is by visiting HERE, a free online alcohol abuse screening test.  While such instruments are not perfect and can not substitute for a full evaluation by a trained professional, they can help you get a better sense of whether your drinking habits and experiences fall within the normal range.  The website was created by people at the Boston University School of Public Health.  If you would like to skip the screening and find advice or help in your area, please click HERE.  This is a great resource for searching for support in cities across the country.  Obviously, another option is simply to bypass the online resources, grab a phone book, and find help in your area.