Has the Election Already Been Won?

With six weeks to go until the 2004 election, John Kerry's situation is quite bleak. Bush's post-convention bounce seems to be sticking around and Kerry is facing an uphill battle. According to Newsweek, Bush is already lined up to receive 254 of the 270 electoral votes required for victory (Kerry has 185). Likewise, the New York Times gives Bush a 243-179 lead over Kerry. With the exception of Michigan, Kerry has gained almost no ground anywhere else. Swing states Ohio and Florida are "Leaning Bush" (Romano), Bush has four point leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and states that were previously considered to be locks for Kerry are now classified as swing states (See below: "Swinging in the Garden State?").

But it's not over for Kerry. Not yet at least, and it won't be over until the ballots are counted on November 2. Thomas Dewey found that out the hard way when he lost to Harry Truman in 1948 after the Chicago Tribune prematurely printed a headline that read "Dewey Defeats Truman." The polls had Bush up by about ten percentage points right after the convention; that edge is now down to about four percent, meaning Bush is slowly losing some ground. Furthermore, by falling far behind in some states, such as Arizona, Kerry can cut back spending and campaigning there and focus them on states that are still up for grabs. Kerry still has a chance at winning the election, but to do it, he may have to pull off a Truman-like upset in November.

Works Consulted
2004 Election Guide. 23 Sept. 2004. The New York Times. 23 Sept. 2004 < http://www
.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/>.
Romano, Andrew. “Can Kerry Turn the Corner?” Newsweek 27 Sept. 2004: 24.