Swinging in the Garden State?

Squashed in between Philadelphia and New York, New Jersey never gets much recognition. Sure, there was the Jim McGreevey scandal and threats of terror attacks in Newark, but in the political campaigning season, New Jersey is heavily ignored. To some extent, the ignorance is with good reason. Over the last two elections, New Jersey has voted Democrat by at least 15%. In fact, only three times in the last ten elections has a candidate won New Jersey's electoral votes by less than 13%. Both Senators are Democrats, the Governor is a Democrat, and the Democrats currently hold a slim edge for New Jersey's House seats (7-6). So why should either candidate pay any attention to New Jersey, a state that seems to be nearly a lock to vote for Kerry?

According to a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, President Bush and Senator Kerry are currently tied in the Garden State. Reasons for the sudden Republican surge in New Jersey include the Jim McGreevey scandal, which weakened support for Democrats, and the Republican convention, which was held just across the Hudson River in New York City. Despite what is now a close race, I, a New Jersey resident, have yet to see a commercial for either candidate. Neither candidate has stopped in New Jersey, even though they both have spent large amounts of time across the Delaware River in Pennsylvania.

So both candidates should take their campaign buses straight up the New Jersey Turnpike, right? Well, not so fast. Yes, my town, which is in a conservative area, is leaning toward Bush, as many voters respect the way he has handled foreign relations. And as one of the richest states in the country, New Jersey and its residents also often support Bush's pro-rich policies such as his tax cuts and his support of big business. But, for the most part, Bush’s support ends there. The urban areas, which include Newark, Trenton, and Jersey City, almost always vote Democrat. In addition, most New Jersey residents disagree with Bush on a number of issues, from gun control and the environment to health care and the economy. Both candidates should pay attention to New Jersey—its 15 electoral votes are hard to ignore—but, barring a drastic change, John Kerry will be victorious in the Garden State.


Works Consulted

2004 Election Guide. 21 Sept. 2004. The New York Times. 21 Sept. 2004 <>.

Hulse, Carl. "Is Jersey Red Enough to Make Kerry Blue?" The New York Times 21
Sept. 2004. 21 Sept. 2004 <>.