Table 1

The Behavior of Emerging Market Returns


Comparison of IFC and MSCI Emerging Market Global Indices
MeanVolatilityTrackingCorrelationCorrelationCorrelationCorrelationCorrelation
StartDifferenceDifferenceErrorIFC vs.IFC vs.MSCI vs.IFC vs.MSCI vs.
CountryDateIFC-MSCIIFC-MSCIIFC-MSCIMSCIAC WorldAC WorldCompositeComposite
ArgentinaJan-88-10.6%-21.1%61.9%0.760.01-0.060.190.04
BrazilJan-881.4%2.3%19.4%0.960.220.230.280.34
ChileJan-881.7%-0.8%7.6%0.960.080.050.320.36
ColombiaJan-93-4.5%-2.0%7.8%0.96-0.040.040.160.05
GreeceJan-887.0%0.8%11.9%0.960.180.130.05-0.01
IndiaJan-935.0%-1.5%6.6%0.980.02-0.130.380.16
IndonesiaJan-90-1.4%2.2%9.1%0.960.110.150.370.45
JordanJan-88-4.2%-0.1%11.9%0.750.090.220.160.14
MalaysiaJan-880.6%0.1%4.8%0.980.490.460.480.48
MexicoJan-881.4%-1.3%10.9%0.960.280.260.450.48
PakistanJan-930.1%2.5%4.5%0.990.010.020.510.16
PeruJan-93-0.1%2.6%7.0%0.990.450.440.460.46
PhilippinesJan-882.3%0.0%9.7%0.950.370.360.500.47
PolandJan-93-7.3%3.3%15.1%0.990.380.460.350.41
PortugalJan-88-0.5%0.4%6.4%0.960.480.490.120.14
South AfricaJan-93-1.4%-0.2%3.2%0.990.350.350.480.53
South KoreaJan-88-0.2%0.3%6.7%0.970.370.350.380.38
Sri LankaJan-932.5%-0.8%5.1%0.990.000.000.360.35
TaiwanJan-881.0%-1.1%7.2%0.990.210.220.820.81
ThailandJan-880.4%0.6%5.3%0.990.360.330.480.47
TurkeyJan-882.8%-2.5%22.1%0.940.020.010.200.24
VenezuelaJan-93-4.0%-2.0%9.1%0.98-0.03-0.120.19-0.15
Average-0.4%-0.8%11.5%0.950.200.190.350.31
-Composite: IFC Global Composite; AC World: MSCI All Country World Index.
-Source: IFC Global Indices, MSCI EM Indices. Monthly returns in US Dollars.


Last Updated: May 22, 1996

Analyst/Contact: Campbell R. Harvey

E-Mail Address: charvey@mail.duke.edu