Table 5

The Behavior of Emerging Market Returns


Country Risk Level Portfolio Strategy
High AttributeLow AttributeLow-High Attribute
IFCMSCIAverageIFCMSCIAverageIFCMSCI
PortfolioStandardCompAC WorldAnnualPortfolioStandardCompAC WorldAnnualPortfolioStandardCompAC World
Risk AttributeReturnDeviationBetaBetaTurnoverReturnDeviationBetaBetaTurnoverReturnDeviationAlphaAlpha
Equal Weighted
ICRGC29.7%25.7%0.650.6950%36.6%23.5%0.320.2457%5.3%26.6%14.5%*17.3%**
ICRGP35.3%27.4%0.670.7655%30.4%21.4%0.290.1653%-3.6%23.9%5.6%8.8%
ICRGF31.8%27.4%0.650.6958%35.9%25.2%0.290.1968%3.1%29.7%13.4%16.5%*
ICRGE27.8%21.7%0.510.4559%40.4%27.3%0.500.5272%9.9%*23.4%11.8%10.9%
IICCR26.5%26.1%0.600.6941%39.9%24.2%0.390.2546%10.5%*25.0%16.1%**19.9%**
EMCRR27.1%24.8%0.590.7040%39.8%23.5%0.410.2646%10.0%*21.5%14.9%**19.0%***
INFLATE41.9%25.7%0.460.4462%26.2%20.9%0.530.5254%-11.1%*18.0%-11.2%**-11.5%*
TRADEGDP32.6%23.7%0.550.7635%35.0%24.3%0.430.1746%1.8%21.9%5.7%13.9%**
POPGR30.2%19.9%0.260.2630%36.1%25.8%0.580.6338%4.5%19.9%0.7%0.7%
AAGEGR33.3%26.1%0.530.7437%31.7%22.9%0.310.1436%-1.2%24.3%5.0%11.3%
AVEAGE37.2%29.0%0.640.6239%28.5%19.2%0.190.2526%-6.3%24.4%3.8%2.8%
MKTCAP24.8%26.9%0.810.6649%41.0%25.9%0.160.2855%13.0%*32.5%29.8%***26.3%**
MOM-138.9%26.8%0.520.66203%26.8%21.8%0.460.30220%-8.8%23.1%-4.7%-0.7%
MOM-2-437.0%28.3%0.570.68205%28.8%21.5%0.400.28215%-6.0%25.2%-0.3%3.6%
P/E*22.8%27.7%0.650.7977%39.6%21.8%0.310.3088%13.7%*26.8%22.6%***24.7%***
P/B*20.8%27.2%0.660.8272%42.3%20.7%0.300.2680%17.7%**24.3%25.9%***27.6%***
P/D29.4%29.2%0.700.5188%39.6%22.2%0.250.4386%7.9%25.2%18.7%***12.4%
Capitalization Weighted
ICRGC12.0%33.0%1.060.6130%29.8%28.6%0.470.3858%15.9%*40.1%35.4%***30.9%**
ICRGP13.7%34.3%1.120.7222%20.3%23.4%0.39-0.0438%5.7%35.9%26.6%***27.3%**
ICRGF15.7%33.6%1.050.7423%22.2%31.5%0.490.0349%5.6%44.0%27.1%**29.6%**
ICRGE16.8%31.8%0.960.6025%18.0%38.5%0.910.7345%1.0%42.0%10.2%5.9%
IICCR16.4%32.0%0.990.6422%24.7%35.9%0.820.6034%7.2%37.0%16.5%13.3%
EMCRR17.1%31.9%0.990.6423%19.4%36.9%0.840.5946%2.0%37.2%11.2%8.8%
INFLATE19.6%34.0%0.820.6743%17.0%31.8%0.980.6123%-2.2%34.2%1.7%4.2%
TRADEGDP20.1%35.0%1.060.7219%15.3%31.1%0.710.4430%-4.0%38.8%9.1%7.8%
POPGR16.7%27.1%0.600.5021%14.3%27.1%0.630.6520%-2.1%30.3%3.1%0.6%
AAGEGR15.8%31.8%0.820.9117%15.7%20.9%0.370.0717%-0.1%29.0%12.6%18.0%**
AVEAGE16.2%27.7%0.630.5720%18.5%26.6%0.620.5915%2.0%30.7%5.8%3.8%
MKTCAP15.1%32.5%1.070.6322%27.7%26.3%0.140.4350%11.0%44.7%38.3%***25.6%*
MOM-123.8%29.7%0.720.67237%19.3%34.3%0.990.58232%-3.6%38.0%1.9%7.3%
MOM-2-415.2%36.7%1.010.72130%19.4%30.7%0.730.41139%3.7%39.7%17.4%17.1%
P/E*14.5%35.5%1.090.9833%21.9%32.4%0.590.2969%6.4%43.0%25.1%*26.2%*
P/B*10.5%38.1%1.180.9240%24.6%26.1%0.480.5764%12.7%42.3%33.9%***25.7%*
P/D17.8%36.4%1.120.6842%32.9%26.3%0.410.3985%12.8%41.0%34.6%***25.0%*
IFC Composite15.7%22.5%1.000.58
MSCI AC World16.1%14.5%0.241.00
-Significance level: * 10%, ** 5%, *** 1%.
-IFC Global and MSCI World Indices in US dollars: Unhedged.
-Countries enter portfolios when they emerge in IFC indices.
-From January 1985-December 1987 the MSCI World Index was substituted for the MSCI All Country (AC) World Index.
-Price/Earnings and Price/Book ratios are unavailable until January 1986.
-Portfolios were formed by sorting the countries into two halves based on the level of the attribute.
-Portfolios were reformed quarterly.
Legend
ICRGCPolitical Risk Services: International Country Risk Guide - Composite
ICRGPPolitical Risk Services: International Country Risk Guide - Political
ICRGFPolitical Risk Services: International Country Risk Guide - Financial
ICRGEPolitical Risk Services: International Country Risk Guide - Economic
IICCRInstitutional Investor Country Credit Ratings
EMCRREuromoney Country Risk Ratings
INFLATEAnnual Consumer Inflation: IFS Database (six month lag)
TRADEGDPTrade Openness: (Exports+Imports)/GDP (six month lag)
POPGRAnnual Growth in Total Population - UN Data
AAGEGRAnnual Growth in Average Age of Population - UN Data
AVEAGEAverage Age of Population - UN Data
MKTCAPIFC Global Market Capitalization
MOM-1Trailing US$ Total Return - Last Month
MOM-2-4Trailing US$ Total Return - Months -4 to -2
P/E*IFC Global Price/Earnings Ratio
P/B*IFC Global Price/Book Ratio
P/DIFC Global Price/Dividend Ratio


Last Updated: May 22, 1996

Analyst/Contact: Campbell R. Harvey

E-Mail Address: charvey@mail.duke.edu