PUBLICATIONS, WORKING PAPERS, AND DATA

ALEXANDER B. DOWNES

BOOK

Targeting Civilians in War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2008. Winner of the Joseph Lepgold Book Prize from Georgetown University.

• Link to Targeting Civilians in War at Cornell University Press.
• Link to Targeting Civilians in War at amazon.com.

• Replication Data for statistical analysis in Chapter 2 (Excel Format)
• Web Appendix: includes description of all variables used in statistical analysis; replication instructions; tables with additional results; and sources for all civilian fatality figures in the dataset (pdf)

ARTICLES & BOOK CHAPTERS

1. "Military Culture and Civilian Victimization: The Allied Strategic Bombing of Germany in World War II,” in Civilians and the Ideology of War, ed. Daniel Rothbart, Karina V. Korostelina and Mohammed Cherkaoui (Routledge, forthcoming; pdf).

2. "The Myth of Choosy Democracies: Examining the Selection Effects Theory of Democratic Victory in War," H-Diplo | ISSF Online (forthcoming); part of an H-Diplo roundtable on Dan Reiter's article "A Closer Look at Democracy, Selection Effects, and Victory" (pdf).

3. "Overt Peace, Covert War? Covert Intervention and the Democratic Peace," Security Studies 19, no. 2 (Summer 2010): 366-406 (with Mary Lauren Lilley; pdf).

4. "Targeting Civilians to Win? Assessing the Military Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in Interstate War," in Rethinking Violence: States and Non-State Actors in Conflict, ed. Adria Lawrence and Erica Chenoweth (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2010) (with Kathryn McNabb Cochran; pdf).

5. "Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War," International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009; pdf); my response to Dan Reiter and Allan Stam's letter to the editors of International Security regarding my article "How Smart and Tough Are Democracies?"

• There was a small error in the published version of my response: on p. 203, the last word in the first paragraph on the page should be "insignificant" rather than "significant." My point here was that when draws were included in the analysis, not only did the linear specification of democracy explain more of the variance in war outcomes than the curvilinear one -- which is the key criteria for choosing between the two models -- but the fractional polynomial terms in the curvilinear specification were also insignificant, further undermining the contention that there is a non-linear relationship between democracy and victory for war initiators. This is shown clearly in model 3 in Table 1 of the additional documentation below.
• Additional documentation for my contribution to this correspondence: "Comparing the Effect of Linear Versus Curvilinear Specifications of Democracy on War Outcomes" (pdf).
• Further exploration of whether the relationship between regime type and victory is non-linear: "A Note on Curvilinearity, Democracy, and Victory," (pdf).

6. "How Smart and Tough Are Democracies? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory in War," International Security 33, no. 4 (Spring 2009): 9-51 (pdf).

• Replication Data (Excel Format)
• Web Appendix (pdf)

7. "Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 6 (December 2007): 872-904.

• Replication Data (Excel Format)
• Web Appendix: replication instructions, variable description, additional tables, and sources for civilian fatality figures in the dataset (pdf)

8. "Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves : Investigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsurgency Strategy," Civil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 420-444 (pdf).

9. "Introduction: Modern Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Comparative Perspective," Civil Wars 9, no. 4 (December 2007): 313-323 (pdf).

10. "Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: The Causes of Civilian Victimization in War," International Security 30, no. 4 (Spring 2006): 152-195 (pdf).

• Additional Table on Timing of Civilian Victimization in Wars of Attrition (pdf)
• Replication Data for Table 3, "Determinants of Civilian Victimization by Capable Participants in Interstate Wars, 1816-2003" (Excel Format)

11. "More Borders, Less Conflict? Partition as a Solution to Ethnic Wars," SAIS Review 26, no. 1 (Winter-Spring 2006): 49-61 (pdf).

12. "The Problem with Negotiated Settlements to Ethnic Civil Wars," Security Studies 13, no. 4 (Summer 2004): 230-279 (pdf).

13. "The Holy Land Divided: Defending Partition as a Solution to Ethnic Wars," Security Studies 10, no. 4 (Summer 2001): 58-116 (pdf).

WORKING PAPERS

1. "Catastrophic Success: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Civil War" (pdf).

2. "FIRCed to Be Free: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Democratization" (with Jonathan Monten; under review; pdf).

3. "It's a Crime, but Is It a Blunder: The Efficacy of Targeting Civilians in War" (with Kathryn McNabb Cochran; under review; pdf).

4. "Democracies and the Credibility of Coercive Threats" (with Todd Sechser).

5. "The Causes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change in Interstate Wars" (pdf).