This course will focus on the relationship between American public opinion and U.S. foreign policy. The course is structured around four central questions:

• Does the American public have coherent attitudes about U.S. foreign policy? If so, what is the content of those attitudes?
• How much influence do American leaders and the media have over the formation of public opinion regading foreign policy?
• Do attitudes toward foreign policy issues influence American elections?
• Does public opinion actually influence American foreign policy behavior?

We will address these questions through a review of the literature on American public opinion and foreign policy over the past 50 years. While the course does not require a background in statistics, a substantial proportion of the readings will include description and analysis of quantitative data on American public opinion.

Course Requirements:

Student performance will be evaluated on the following basis:

1) Most of our time in class will be spent discussing and analyzing the weekly readings, so attendance at and participation in the discussions are essential. Students will also be asked to sign-up to lead the discussion on one set of readings. Class participation (and discussion leadership) will count for 20% of your final grade.

2) During the course of the semester each student must submit two short papers (3-5 double spaced, typed pages). Students will sign up in advance for the weeks that they wish to write short papers. In these papers you are to analyze a particular reading or set of readings for your assigned week. From that reading or set of readings, students should identify an issue that they believe requires further research. Students must then describe the survey data that they would collect in order to study that issue. Papers should identify the population that would be surveyed, the specific question wording that would be used in the survey instrument, and the response options that would be provided to respondents. In addition, students should discuss how they believe the responses to these survey items would help to further our understanding of the issue in the readings that they identified. These two short papers will account for 30% of your grade.

3) The third course requirement is a research paper. This paper should be approximately 15-20 pages. The paper is due on DUE ON MONDAY APRIL 28 at 9:00 AM.  In these papers students will be expected to conduct an original analysis of American public opinion regarding some foreign policy related issue. Access to public opinion data on a variety of issues will be made available, but students should also feel free to address other issues or other data if they wish. I am willing to help students locate data that are of substantive interest to them. The research paper will account for 50% of your grade.

It is important that students cite the material that they have relied upon in writing these papers. If you have questions about when you need to provide citation for a source, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on avoiding plagaiarism. If you have questions about how to provide citation on your sources, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on citation formats. Use any citation format that you prefer, what is important is that you give credit to the sources you used.

Required Books:

No books are required for purchase for this class. All readings are available online through Duke's full-text databases or on e-reserves. Students can obtain the readings by clicking on the links below. Students must be connected to the Duke network or through the Duke VPN client to download and print the readings.

Schedule of Readings - All listed readings are required

January 10 - Organization

January 15- Interpreting Survey Questions and Survey Response

Roper, BW. 1984. Are Polls Accurate? Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 472:24-34

Lockerbie B, Borrelli S. 1990. Question Wording and Public Support for Contra Aid, 1983-1986. The Public Opinion Quarterly 54:195-208

Part I - The Structure of American Public Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy

January 17 - The Almond-Lippmann Consensus

Almond G. 1950. The American People and Foreign Policy . New York: Harcourt Brace. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5

Lippmann W. 1955. Essays in the Public Philosophy . Boston: Little Brown. Chapter 2.

January 22 - No Class

January 24 - Converse and "The Michigan School"

Campbell A, Converse PE, Miller WE, Stokes DE. 1960. The American Voter . New York: John Wiley. Chapter 9

Converse PE. 1964. The Nature and Origin of Belief Systems in Mass Publics. in David Apterl ed. pp.206-261. Ideology and Discontent. New York: The Free Press.

January 29 - The Vietnam War and Changing Views of the Public

Verba S, Brody RA, Parker EB, Nie NH, Polsby NW, Ekman P, Black GS. 1967. Public Opinion and the War in Vietnam. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev . 61: 317-333

Caspary WR. 1970. The ‘Mood Theory': A Study of Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev . 64: 536-547

Achen CH. 1975. Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response. Am Polit. Sci. Rev . 69: 1218-1231

January 31 - A Stable and Reasonable Public?

Shapiro RY, Page BI, 1988. Foreign Policy and the Rational Public. J. Confl. Res . 32: 211-47

Page, Benjamin I. and Roberty Y. Shapiro. 1982. Changes in Americans' Policy Preferences 1935-1979. Pub. Opin. Quart . 46: 24-42

Nincic M. 1992a. A Sensible Public: New Perspectives on Popular Opinion and Foreign Policy. J. Confl Res 36: 772-789

February 5 - Individual Variation in Attitudes: Internationalism vs. Isolationism

Nincic, M. 1997. Domestic Costs, the U.S. Public, and the Isolationist Calculus. International Studies Quarterly 41: 593-609

Wittkopf, E. 1986. On the Foreign Policy Beliefs of the American People: A Critique and Some Evidence. International Studies Quarterly 30: 425-445

Holsti, O. 1979. The Three-Headed Eagle: The United States and System Change. International Studies Quarterly 23:339-359

February 7 - The Structure of Individual Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy

Hurwitz, J, Peffley M. 1987. How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model. The American Political Science Review. 81:1099-1120

Peffley M, Hurwitz, J. 1993. Models of Attitude Constraint in Foreign Affairs. Political Behavior. 15: 61-90

February 12 - Personality Types and Foreign Policy Attitudes

Herrmann, R, Tetlock P, Visser P. 1999. Mass Public Decisions to Go to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework. The American Political Science Review. 93:553-573

Hermann R, Tetlock P, Visser P. 2001. How Americans Think About Trade: Reconciling Conflicts Among Money, Power, and Principles. International Studies Quarterly 45:191-219 (in Blackwell-Synergy)

Brewer P, Gross K, Aday S, Willnat L. 2004. International Trust and Public Opinion About World Affairs. American Journal of Political Science. 48:93-110 (in EBSCO Host)

February 14 - Attitudes Toward Trade

Scheve KF, Slaughter MJ. 2001b. “What Determines Individual Trade Policy Preferences?” J. Intl. Econ. 54:267-292. (in Science Direct)

Baker A. 2005. “Who Wants to Globalize? Consumer Tastes and Labor Markets in a Theory of Trade Policy Beliefs.” Am. J. Polit. Sci. 49: 924-938. (in EBSCO Host)

Hiscox M. 2004.   “Through a Glass and Darkly: Attitudes Towards International Trade and the Curious Effects of Issue Framing.” Unpublished manuscript.

February 19 - Attitudes Toward Casualties: Vietnam

Mueller J. 1971. Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 65: 358-375

Gartner S, Segura G. 1998. “War Casualties and Public Opinion.” J Confl. Res. 42:278-320.

Adam Berkinsky. 2001. Public Opinion During the Vietnam War: A Revised Measure of the Public Will. Unpublished Manuscript.

February 21 - Attitudes Toward Casualties: A Vietnam Syndrome?

Luttwak, E. 1996. A post-heroic military policy. (post-Cold War US military policy) Foreign Affairs 75:33-45 (in EBSCO Host)

Sapolsky H, Shapiro J. 1996. “Casualties, Technology, and America's Future Wars.” Parameters 26:119-127. (in Purl (Law Library))

Burk J. 1999. Public Support for Peacekeeping in Lebanon and Somalia: assessing the Casualties Hypothesis. Polit. Sci. Quart . 114: 53-78

Februaru 26 - Attitudes Toward Casualties: A Reasoning Public?

Gelpi C, Feaver P, Reifler J. 2005/2006. Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq. International Security. Winter 2005/2006.

Eichenberg R. 2005. Victory Has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force 1981-2005. International Security 30:140-178. (in InfoTrac OneFile)

Larson E. 2000. Putting Theory to Work: Diagnosing Public Opinion on the U.S. Intervention in Bosnia, ed. Miroslav Nincic and Joseph Lepgold, Being Useful: Policy Relevance and International Relations Theory . Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Part II - Elite Impact on the Formation and Expression of Public Opinion

February 28 - The Expression of Public Attitudes

Zaller J, Feldman S. 1992. A simple theory of the survey response: answering questions versus revealing preferences. American Journal of Political Science August 36:579-617

Zaller J. 1991. Information, Values, and Opinion. The American Political Science Review 85:1215-1237

March 4 - Agenda Setting, Priming and Framing

Krosnick JA, Kinder DR. 1990. Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming. Am. Polit. Sci Rev . 84: 497-512  

Berinsky A, Kinder D. 2006. Making Sense of Issues Through Media Frames: Understanding the Kosovo Crisis. Journal of Politics.

Iyengar S, Simon A. 1993. News coverage of the Gulf crisis and public opinion: a study of agenda-setting, priming, and framing. Communication Research 20:365-384

March 6 - Public Opinion and Elite Strategic Behavior

Baum M. 2004. Going Private: Public Opinion, Presidential Rhetoric, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises. J. Confl. Res. 48: 603-631. (in ABI/INFORM)

Kernell, S. Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership. Washingtong: CQ Press. Chapter 4

Fritz, Ben, Bryan Keefer, and Brendan Nyhan. 2004. All the President's Spin . Touchstone: New York. Chapter 8

March 7 - 16 SPRING BREAK

March 18 - Media Coverage and Pubic Opinion

Entman, R. 1989. How the Media Affect What People Think: An Information Processing Approach. The Journal of Politics. 51:347-370

Groeling T, Kernell S. 1998. Is Network News Coverage of the President Biased? The Journal of Politics. 60:1063-1087

Baum M. 2002. Sex, Lies, and War: How Soft News Brings Foreign Policy to the Inattentive Public. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev . 96: 91-109 (in Cambridge Online)

March 20 - Media Coverage and Public Opinion II

Aday S, Cluverius J, Livingston S. 2005. As goes the statue, so goes the war: the emergence of the victory frame in television coverage of the Iraq war. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media. 49:314-332 (in InfoTrac OneFile)

Allen B, O'Loughlin P, Jasperson A, Sullivan J. 1994. The Media and the Gulf War: Framing, Priming, and the Spiral of Silence. Polity 27:255-284

Mermin J. 1997. Television News and American Intervention in Somalia: The Myth of a Media-Driven Foreign Policy. Political Science Quarterly 112:385-403

Part III - Foreign Affairs and Electoral Choice

March 25 - Foreign Policy and the Electoral Connection?

Stokes DE. 1966. Some Dynamic Elements of Contests for the Presidency. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 60: 19-28

Page BI, Brody RA. 1972. Policy Voting and the Electoral Process. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev . 66: 979-95

Aldrich JH. 1977. Electoral Choice in 1972:   A Test of Some Theorems of the Spatial Model of Electoral Competition . J Mathematical Soc . 5: 215-237

March 27 - No Class

April 1 - Foreign Policy and Elections Revisited

Aldrich JH, Sullivan JL, Bordiga E. 1989. Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates Waltz Before A Blind Audience? Am Polit Sci Rev. 81: 123-141.

Anand, S and J A Krosnick. 2003. “The impact of attitudes toward foreign policy goals on public preferences among presidential candidates: A study of issue publics and the attentive public in the 2000 U.S. Presidential election.” Presidential Studies Quarterly , 33, 31-71. (in InfoTrac Onefile)

Nincic M, Hinkley B. Foreign Policy and the Evaluation of Presidential Candidates. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 35:333-355

April 3 - The Iraq War and the 2004 Election

Gelpi C, Reifler J, Feaver, P. 2006. Iraq the Vote. Unpublished Manuscript

Karol D, Miguel E. 2005. Iraq War Casualties and the 2004 US Presidential Election. Unpublished Manuscript

Norpoth H., Sidman A. 2006. Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004. Unpublished Manuscript

Part IV - The Policy Impact of Public Opinion

April 8 - Does the Public Guide Foreign Policy?

Sobel R. 2001. The Impact of Public Opinion on U.S. Foreign Policy Since Vietnam . New York: Oxford University Press. Chapter 9

Baum, M. 2004. How public opinion constrains the use of force: the case of operation restore hope. Presidential Studies Quarterly 34:187-227 (in InfoTrac Onefile)

Powlick P, Katz A. 1998. Defining the American Public Opinion/Foreign Policy Nexus. Mershon International Studies Review 42:29-61

April 10 - Leading or Following? Presidential Responses to Public Opinion

Foyle D. 2004. Leading the Public To War? The Influence of American Public Opinion on the Bush Administration's Decision to go to War in Iraq. International Journal of Public Opinion Research Annual 16:269-295 (in InfoTrac Onefile)

Jacobs L, Shapiro R. 1995. The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective. The Public Opinion Quarterly 59: 163-195

McKeown TJ. 2000. The Cuban Missile Crisis and Politics as Usual, J Polit. 62:70-87

April 15 - Elite Understandings of Public Opinion

Powlick P. 1991. The Attitudinal Bases for Responsiveness to Public Opinion among American Foreign Policy Officials. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 611-641

Steven Kull, I.M. Destler. 1999. Misreading the Public: The Myth of the New Isolationsim Chapters 2 & 7 (In NetLibarary)

April 17 - Public Opinion and International Relations Theory: Diversionary War

Charles Ostrom and Brian Job, The President and the Political Use of Force, American Politcal Science Review, 80, 2, (1985):541-566.

Christopher Gelpi, Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution, April (1997).

James Meernik 2000. Modeling International Crises and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States. Journal of Peace Research . 37:547-562.

April 22 - Public Opinion and International Relations Theory: The Democratic Peace

Bueno de Mesquita B, Morrow J, Siversion R, Smith A. 1999. An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace. The American Political Science Review 93:791-807

Smith, A. 1998. International Crises and Domestic Politics. The American Political Science Review 92:623-638

Michael Tomz. 2005. Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. Unpublished Manuscript

April 28 - Research Design Papers Due at 9:00 AM