In this seminar we will read and evaluate the social science literature on the causes of international conflict.  In particular, our readings will emphasize theories concerning the causes of war.  We will focus our attention on both theoretical and empirical works in this area, and we will address a wide variety of research strategies.  The primary objectives of this course are: 1) to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the literature concerning the causes of war, 2) to define specific questions and issues which must be addressed by future research, 3) to develop concrete research strategies for investigating these questions, and 4) to prepare graduate students for oral examinations in international relations.

Course Requirements:

Student performance will be evaluated on the following basis:

1) Most of our time in class will be spent discussing and analyzing the weekly readings, so attendance at and participation in the discussions are essential.  Students will also be asked to sign-up to lead the discussion on one set of readings. Class participation (and discussion leadership) will count for 20% of your final grade.

2) During the course of  semester each student must submit two short papers (3-5 double spaced, typed pages).  Students will sign up in advance for the weeks that they wish to write short papers. Click here for a schedule of paper due dates and discussant duties.   In these papers you are to analyze a particular reading or set of readings for your assigned week.  However, you should not consider these papers to be book reports or summaries of the readings.  Instead, in each paper the student should analyze a particular theoretical or empirical issue in the readings, identify some weakness of the existing literature in this area, and present a concrete solution to the problem. If students focus on a single reading, they are encouraged to write the short paper as if it were a review of the article for a scholarly journal.  These two short papers will account for 30% of your grade.

3) The final course requirement is a research design paper of approximately 20 pages, which will be DUE ON Monday DECEMBER 10 at 9:00 A.M..  As with the short papers, students will be expected to analyze an issue covered by this course, identify a weakness, and provide a solution to the problem.  In this case, however, the issue must obviously be of greater magnitude and/or be discussed in greater detail than in the short papers.  Moreover, the goal of this final project is to develop a research agenda which the student could actually follow up and execute if he or she chose to do so.  Thus even if the student’s ideas relate primarily to theoretical issues, he or she must specify some appropriate method for testing his or her refined hypotheses.  It is my hope that students may be able to use these research designs as the starting points for future journal articles or dissertation prospectuses.  The research design will account for the final 50% of your grade.

It is important that students cite the material that they have relied upon in writing these papers. If you have questions about when you need to provide citation for a source, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on avoiding plagaiarism. If you have questions about how to provide citation on your sources, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on citation formats. Use any citation format that you prefer, what is important is that you give credit to the sources you used.

Required Books:

No books are required for purchase for this class. All readings are available online through Duke's full-text databases or on e-reserves. Students can obtain the readings by clicking on the links below. Students must be connected to the Duke network or through the Duke VPN client to download and print the readings.

Schedule of Readings - All listed readings are required

August 27 - Organization

*Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ, (1994).  Chapter 1, pp.3-33.

August 29 - The Causes of Alliances

*Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Cornell University Press, Ithaca: NY, (1987).  Chapter 2 and chapter 5.

Randall L. Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit, International Security, 19, 1, (1994):72-107.

Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, "Birds of a Feather," Journal of Conflict Resolution 35,2 (1991): 285-306

Michalel Simon and Erik Gartzke, "Political System Similarity and the Choice of Allies," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40,4 (1996): 617-635

September 3 -The Consequences of Alliances

T. Clifon Morgan and Glenn Palmer. 2003. "To Protect and to Serve: Alliances And Foreign Policy Portfolios." The Journal of Conflict Resolution 47,2(2003):180-203. (at Ingenta.com)

Brett Ashley Leeds. 2003. " Do Alliances Deter Aggression? The Influence of Military Alliances on the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes." American Journal of Political Science, 47,3(2003):427-439. (in Synergy)

Alastair Smith. 1996. "To Intervene or Not to Intervene: A Biased Decision." The Journal of Conflict Resolution , Vol. 40, No. 1. (Mar., 1996), pp. 16-40.

September 5 - What is System Structure?

Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Addison-Wesley Publishers, Reading: MA, (1979).  Chapter 8.

Alexander Wendt, “Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics,” International Organization 46, 2, (1992):391-425.

Johnathan Mercer, “Anarchy and Identity,” International Organization, 49, 2 (1995).

September 10 - System Structure and War

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman. 1988. "Empirical Support for Systemic and Dyadic Explanations of International Conflict." World Politics 41,1(1988):1-20.

Paul Huth, Christopher Gelpi, and D. Scott Bennett, “The Escalation of Great Power Disputes: Testing Rational Deterrence Theory and Structural Realism” American Political Science Review, 87, 3, (1993):609-623.

Edward D. Mansfield. 1993. Concentration, Polarity, and the Distribution of Power." International Studies Quarterly , Vol. 37, No. 1. (Mar., 1993), pp. 105-128.

John Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War ” International Security , Vol. 15, No. 1. (Summer, 1990), pp. 5-56.

September 12 - International Institutions

Bruce Russett, John R. Oneal, David R. Davis. “The third leg of the Kantian tripod for peace: international organizations and militarized disputes, 1950-1985.” International Organization Summer 1998 v52 n3 p441(27)

Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom. 2004. "Do intergovernmental organizations promote peace?" World Politics 57.1 (Oct 2004): p1-38. (InfoTrac Onefile)

Robert O. Keohane and Lisa Martin. 1995. "The Promise of Institutionalist Theory." International Security , Vol. 20, No. 1. (Summer, 1995), pp. 39-51.

September 17 - International Norms

V.P. Shannon. 2000. "Norms Are What States Make of Them: The Political Psychology of Norm Violation." International Studies Quarterly    Volume: 44 Number: 2 Page: 293 -- 316.

Christopher Gelpi. 1997. “Crime and Punishment: The Role of Norms in Crisis Bargaining,” American Political Science Review, June (1997).

Nina Tannenwald. 1999. "The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use." International Organization Summer 1999 53,3 p433(38) (in Cambridge Journals Online)

September 19 - Conventional Deterrence and Crisis Decision Making

Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence, Yale University Press, New Haven:CT, (1966).  Chapter 1 and chapter2.

Paul Huth, “Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War,” American Political Science Review, 82, (1988).

James D. Fearon, "Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model," The Journal of Conflict Resolution , Vol. 38, No. 2, Arms, Alliances, and Cooperation: Formal Models and Empirical Tests. (1994), pp. 236-269.

September 24 - Deterrence and Crisis Decision Making Revisited

*Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore:MD, (1981).  Chapter 4.

Janice Gross Stein. 1992. "Deterrence and Compellence in the Gulf: A Failed or Impossible Task?" International Security Fall 1992 v17 n2 p147(33)

*Russel Leng, Interstate Crisis Behavior, 1816-1980: Realism versus Reciprocity, Cambridge University Press, New York:NY, (1993).  Chapter 1

September 26 - Nuclear Deterrence

Bernard Brodie, ed., The Absolute Weapon, Harcourt and Brace, New York:NY, (1946).  Chapter 1 and chapter 2.

Paul Huth, “The Extended Deterrent Value of Nuclear Weapons,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34, 2, (1990):270-290.

John Meuller, “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons,” International Security , Vol. 13, No. 2. (Autumn, 1988), pp. 55-79.

October 1 - Nuclear Proliferation

Kenneth Waltz, "Nuclear Myths and Political Realities," American Political Science Review, 90, 3, (1990).

Scott Sagan, "The Perils of Proliferation", International Security, vol.18, no.4, (1994).

Steve Fetter; Devin T. Hagerty. "Nuclear Deterrence and the 1990 Indo-Pakistani Crisis." International Security , Vol. 21, No. 1. (Summer, 1996), pp. 176-185.

Devin T. Hagerty. 1995-1996. Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia: The 1990 Indo-Pakistani Crisis. International Security , Vol. 20, No. 3. (Winter, 1995-1996), pp. 79-114.

October 3 - Arms Races and War

Michael Wallace, “Armaments and Escalation,” International Studies Quarterly, 26,1, (1982):37-51.

Paul F. Diehl. 1983. "Arms Races and Escalation: A Closer Look." Journal of Peace Research Vol. 20, No. 3. (Sep., 1983), pp. 205-212.

Susan G. Sample. 1997. "Arms Races and Dispute Escalation: Resolving the Debate" Journal of Peace Research , Vol. 34, No. 1. (Feb., 1997), pp. 7-22.

Paul F. Diehl; Mark J. C. Crescenzi. 1998. "Reconfiguring the Arms Race-War Debate." Journal of Peace Research , Vol. 35, No. 1. (Jan., 1998), pp. 111-118.

October 8 - FALL BREAK - No Class

October 10 - Preventive War and Power Transitions

Jack Levy, “Declining Power and the Preventive Motive For War,” World Politics, 40, 1, (1987):82-107.

Randall L. Schweller. 1992. "Domestic Structure and Preventive War."   World Politics Jan 1992 v44 n2 p235(35)

H. Houweling and J. Siccama, “Power Transitions as a Cause of War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32, 1, (1988):87-102.

Douglas Lemke; Suzanne Werner. 1996. "Power Parity, Commitment to Change, and War." International Studies Quarterly , Vol. 40, No. 2. (Jun., 1996), pp. 235-260.

October 15 - Culture and International Conflict

*Alastair Iain Johnston, “Cultural Realism and Strategy in Maoist China," in Katzenstein, ed. The Culture of National Security, Columbia University Press, New York:NY, (1996).

James D. Fearon; David D. Laitin. "Explaining Interethnic Cooperation." The American Political Science Review , Vol. 90, No. 4. (Dec., 1996), pp. 715-735.

*Marc Howard Ross, The Culture of Conflict, Yale University Press, New Haven: CT, (1993). Chapter 4, and chapter 6.

October 17 - The Clash of Civilizations?

Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations?” Foreign Affairs, 72, 3, (1993):22-49.

Bruce M. Russett, John R. Oneal and Michaelene Cox, "Clash of civilizations, or realism and liberalism deju vu? Some evidence. Journal of Peace Research Sept 2000 v37 i5 p583(26).

Giacomo Chiozza. 2002. "Is There a Clash of Civilizations? Evidence from Patterns of International Conflict Involvement, 1946-97.  Journal of Peace Research Nov 2002 v39 i6 p711-734 (in Ingenta)

October 22 - The Liberal Peace Debate

Barbieri, Katherine. 1996. Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict? Journal of Peace Research Vol. 33, No. 1. (Feb., 1996), pp. 29-4.

John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett. 1999. "Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict." Journal of Peace Research Vol. 36, No. 4, Special Issue on Trade and Conflict. (Jul., 1999), pp. 423-442

Barbieri, Katherine; Levy, Jack S. "Sleeping with the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade." Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 36, No. 4, Special Issue on Trade and Conflict. (Jul., 1999), pp. 463-479.

October 24 - The Nature of the "Liberal Peace"

Erik Gartzke , Quan Li, Charles Boehmer. 2001. "Investing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and International Conflict." International Organization Spring 2001 v55 i2 p391

Christopher Gelpi and Joseph Grieco. 2007. "Democracy, Interdependence, and the Liberal Peace." Journal of Peace Research. Forthcoming manuscript.

Richard Timpone. 2001. " Concerns with Endogeneity in Statistical Analysis : Modelling the Interdependece Between Economic Ties and Conflict," in Mansfield and Pollins, eds. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press).

October 29 - Regime Change and War

Stephen Walt, "Revolutions and War," World Politics, vol.44, no.3, (1992).

Zeev Maoz, “Joining the Club of Nations,” International Studies Quarterly, 33, 2, (1989):199-231.

Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder. 1995. "Democratization and the Danger of War." International Security , Vol. 20, No. 1. (Summer, 1995), pp. 5-38.

Reinhard Wolf, Erich Weede, Andrew J. Enterline , Edward D. Mansfield , Jack Snyder . "Democratization and the Danger of War (Comment).  International Security Spring 1996 v20 n4 p176(3)

October 31 - Diversionary War?

Charles Ostrom and Brian Job, “The President and the Political Use of Force,” American Politcal Science Review, 80, 2, (1985):541-566.

Christopher Gelpi, “Democratic Diversions: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, April (1997).

*James Meernik 2000. "Modeling International Crises and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States." Journal of Peace Research . 37:547-562.

November 5 - The Democratic Peace Debate

Bruce Russett and Zeev Maoz, “Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace, 1946-1986,” American Political Science Review, 87, 3, (1993):624-638.

Henry S. Farber and Joanne Gowa. 1995. "Polities and Peace." International Security. Vol. 20, No. 2 (Autumn, 1995), pp. 123-146

Christopher Layne, “Kant or Can’t? The Myth of the Democratic Peace,” International Security, 19, 2, (1994):1-49.

Maoz, Zeev. 1997. The controversy over the democratic peace: Rearguard action or cracks in the wall? International Security 22:162-98.

November 7 - Sources of the Democratic Peace

James Fearon, “Domestic Poltical Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes, American Political Science Review, 88,3, (1994):577-592.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson and Alastair Smith. 1999. "An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace."
The American Political Science Review > Vol. 93, No. 4 (Dec., 1999), pp. 791-807

*Christopher Gelpi and Michael Griesdorf, "Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crises," American Political Science Review, 95, 3 (2001).

Erik Gartzke. 2000. "Preferences and the Democratic Peace." International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 44, No. 2 (Jun., 2000), pp. 191-212

November 12 - World War I and the Cult of the Offensive

Jack Snyder, “Civil-Military Relations and the Cult of the Offensive, 1914 and 1984,” International Security , Vol. 9, No. 1. (Summer, 1984), pp. 108-146.

Steven Van Evera, “The Cult of the Offensive and the First World War,” International Security , Vol. 9, No. 1. (Summer, 1984), pp. 58-107.

Scott Sagan, “1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability,” International Security , Vol. 11, No. 2. (Autumn, 1986), pp. 151-175.

November 14 - The Offense Defense Balance

*Stephen Biddle. 2003. "Rebuilding the Foundations of Offense-Defense Theory." The Journal of Politics    63, 3: 741 -- 774 (in Synergy)

Stephen Van Evera. "Offense, defense, and the causes of war."  International Security Spring 1998 v22 n4 p5(39)

Karen Ruth Adams. 2003. “Attack and Conquer” International Security Vol. 28, No. 3 (Winter 2003/2004).

November 19 - American Public Opinion and War

Mueller J. 1971. Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 65: 358-375

Eichenberg, Richard. "Victory has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981-2005." International Security 30(1)

Christopher Gelpi, Peter D. Feaver, and Jason Reifler. 2005/2006. "Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq." International Security. 30:7-46.

Berinsky, Adam. 2007 “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict.” Journal of Politics. Forthcoming, 2007.

November 26 - Civil War vs. International War

Fearon, James and David Laitin. 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review 97(1).

Walter, Barbara. 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement." International Organization. 51(3).

Elbadawi, Ibrahim and Nicholas Sambanis. 2002. "How Much War Will We See? Explaining the Prevalence of Civil War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(3).

November 28 - Terrorism and War

Bloom, Mia. 2004. "Palestinian Suicide Bombing: Public Support, Market Share, and Outbidding." Political Science Quarterly 119(1)

Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2005. "Conciliation, Counterterrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist Violence." International Organization 59(1)

Robert A. Pape . 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism."  American Political Science Review August 2003 v97 i3 p343(19) (in Cambridge Journals Online)

December 10 - Research Design Papers Due at 9:00 AM