Stock Market Predictions

Question 4: On June 8th, the annual yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was 5.4%.
a. Best Guess: Over the next 10 years, I expect the S&P 500 will average a ______annual return b. Best Guess: During the next year, I expect S&P 500 to return ______% c. High range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 change the S&P return will be higher than __% d. Low range: During the next year, there is a 1-in-10 change the S&P return will be lower than __%
Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Industry Retail & Wholesale 9.21 19 6.84 19 11.79 19 0.00 19
Mining/Construction 10.38 8 6.00 8 13.50 8 0.13 8
Manufacturing 9.13 85 5.85 83 13.84 83 0.26 83
Transportation & Energy 9.71 7 4.14 7 12.50 6 -0.33 6
Communications and Media 9.54 12 6.73 11 11.73 11 1.55 11
Tech (software/Biotech) 8.93 15 5.27 15 11.93 14 -3.00 14
Bank/Finance/Insurance 8.57 23 6.91 23 14.93 23 2.30 23
Other 9.28 36 6.07 36 13.06 36 0.06 36
NR 11.33 3 6.00 3 16.67 3 11.67 3
Average 9.21 208 6.06 205 13.38 203 0.42 203
  Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Revenues $0-24 million 8.33 40 6.56 39 11.86 37 0.50 38
$25-99 million 9.41 60 5.37 59 12.09 58 0.65 57
$100-499 million 9.67 49 6.44 49 13.64 49 -1.44 49
$500-999 million 8.10 15 5.91 14 12.00 16 0.50 16
$1-4.9 billion 9.48 29 6.21 29 17.57 28 3.36 28
$5 billion and over 11.14 7 4.86 7 17.14 7 -7.14 7
NR 8.69 8 7.00 8 12.88 8 6.00 8
Average 9.21 208 6.06 205 13.38 203 0.42 203
Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Size Less than 100 8.68 34 5.87 34 13.69 32 0.94 33
100-499 8.92 71 5.95 69 10.74 68 0.13 67
500-999 9.97 30 7.51 30 14.57 30 0.70 30
1000-2499 8.94 24 5.65 23 13.46 24 -2.90 24
2500-4999 9.46 14 6.08 13 14.15 13 1.23 13
5,000-9,999 9.69 16 4.82 17 19.59 17 3.24 17
Over 10,000 10.38 12 6.17 12 15.17 12 -1.17 12
NR 8.86 7 5.86 7 12.57 7 5.29 7
Average 9.21 208 6.06 205 13.38 203 0.42 203
Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Hq. Location Northeast 9.17 52 5.55 52 12.81 51 -0.13 51
Midwest 9.71 7 5.00 7 12.67 6 0.00 6
South Atlantic 9.44 71 6.30 70 14.86 70 -0.32 71
Mountain 9.05 22 6.73 22 12.91 22 0.14 22
South Central 9.20 15 6.57 14 14.14 14 1.43 14
Pacific 9.06 31 6.03 30 11.77 30 1.72 29
NR 8.20 10 5.55 10 11.10 10 4.20 10
Average 9.21 208 6.06 205 13.38 203 0.42 203
Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Ownership Public, NYSE 10.24 29 5.54 28 17.68 28 0.68 28
Public, NASDAQ/AMEX 8.50 21 5.76 21 13.26 21 0.00 21
Private 9.05 155 6.18 153 12.50 151 0.47 151
NR 12.17 3 6.50 3 18.33 3 -1.67 3
Average 9.21 208 6.06 205 13.38 203 0.42 203
Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Foreign Sales 0% 8.89 74 5.73 73 13.03 73 -0.48 73
1 - 24% 9.05 91 5.99 89 12.57 89 -0.11 88
25- - 49% 10.36 22 5.66 22 13.24 21 -1.00 21
50 - or more 9.92 13 7.46 13 19.54 13 6.12 13
NR 9.56 8 8.50 8 16.14 7 9.00 8
Average 9.21 208 6.06 205 13.38 203 0.42 203
Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding Average No. Responding
By Dividends Yes 9.25 67 6.47 65 15.14 66 -0.42 66
No 9.09 130 5.73 128 12.27 126 0.53 125
NR 10.41 11 7.25 12 15.45 11 3.92 12
Average 9.21 208 6.06 205 13.38 203 0.42 203