In this course we will read and evaluate the social science literature on the causes of war. We will focus our attention on both theoretical and empirical works in this area, and we will address a wide variety of research strategies. After reviewing many of the prominent theories of war, we shall apply these ideas to the analysis of several case studies. The primary objectives of this course are: 1) to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the literature concerning the causes of war, 2) to define specific questions and issues which must be addressed by future research, 3) to apply our knowledge of the causes of war to several prominent historical case studies.

Course Requirements:

Student performance will be evaluated on the following basis:

1) A 75 minute , in-class midterm exam, covering the theories of war discussed in the first section of the course. The exam will be given on WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 20, and will account for 25% of your grade.

2) A research paper of approximately 10-15 pages will be due at 9:00 A.M. on MONDAY DECEMBER 12. Students will be expected to apply one or more of the theories reviewed in this course to one or more historical cases that are not reviewed in this course. By a "case" I am referring either to a war or to a crisis in which war was averted. Students may select more than one theory and determine which approach provides the most persuasive explanation of a particular case or they may test one theory against two or more cases. Some reseach will be required for this assignment, but I do not expect your papers to be major historical undertakings. Your task will be made easier by selecting wars or crises which have already received a good deal of attention from historians. The research paper will account for 35% of your grade.

It is important that students cite the material that they have relied upon in writing these papers. If you have questions about when you need to provide citation for a source, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on avoiding plagaiarism. If you have questions about how to provide citation on your sources, please see the Duke Libraries' guide on citation formats. Use any citation format that you prefer, what is important is that you give credit to the sources you used.

3) A final exam, is scheduled for WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 14 from 7:00 to 10:00 P.M. This exam will be cumulative across the entire semester. The date of the exam is set by the University and no changes can be made. This exam will account for the final 40% of your grade.

Required Books:

The following books have been ordered and should be available for purchase at the Bryan Center bookstore. They are also on reserve, but because we will be referring to them frequently I suggest you buy them if at all possible. In addition, the articles are available on reserve at Perkins Library, on e-reserves, and/or online databases through Duke Libraries. You can click on the title to be linked to that reading.

Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven Miller, eds., The Cold War and After, MIT Press, Cambridge: MA, (1993).
Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies II, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor: MI (2000).
Steven Miller, ed., Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ, (1991).
Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ, (1994).

Schedule of Readings and Lectures - All listed readings are required

August 29 - Organization and Introductions

August 31 - The Structure of International Conflict and Cooperation
Robert Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, vol.30., no.2, (1978).
Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, Basic Books, New York: NY, (1984). Chapter 1.

September 5 - The Causes and Effects of Alliances
Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Cornell University Press, Ithaca: NY, (1987). Chapter 2 and chapter 5.
Schweller, Randall, "Bandwagoning for Profit," International Security, vol.19, no. 1, (1994).
Jack Levy, "Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495-1975," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 25, 4, (1981):581-613.

September 7 - System Structure
Glenn Snyder and Paul Diesing, Conflict Among Nations, Chapter 6.
Paul Huth, Christopher Gelpi, and D. Scott Bennett. 1993. "The Escalation of Great Power Militarized Disputes: Testing Rational Deterrence Theory and Structural Realism." American Political Science Review. 87(3).

September 12 - Culture and Crisis Bargaining?
Samuel Huntington, "Clash of Civilizations?" Foreign Affairs, 72, 3, (1993):22-49.
Marc Howard Ross, The Culture of Conflict, Yale University Press, New Haven: CT, (1993). Chapter 1, Chapter 2, Chapter 4, and Chapter 6.
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 2.

September 14 - Norms, Institutions and Conflict Resolution
Robert Keohane and Lisa Martin, "The Promise of Institutionalist Theory," International Security, 21, 1, (1995):39-51.
Jeffrey Legro, "Culture and Preferences in the International Cooperation Two-Step," American Political Science Review, 90, 1 (1996).
Christopher Gelpi, "Crime and Punishment: The Role of Norms in Crisis Bargaining," American Political Science Review, 82 (June 1997).

September 19 - Power Transitions and Arms Races
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 5.
James Morrow, "A Twist of Truth: Effects of Arms Races on the Occurrence of War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33, 3, (1989)500-529.
Michael Wallace, "Armaments and Escalation," International Studies Quarterly, 26,1, (1982):37-51.

September 21 - Crisis Bargaining
Snyder and Diesing, Conflict Among Nations, Chapter 3: part 1, part 2, part 3.
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 9.

September 26 - Conventional Deterrence
Paul Huth, "Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War," American Political Science Review, 82, (1988).
Janice Stein, "Deterrence and Reassurance, in Philip Tetlock et al. eds., Behavior Society and Nuclear War, vol. 2., Oxford University Press, New York:NY, (1991), part 1, part 2.

September 28 - Nuclear Deterrence
Bernard Brodie, ed., The Absolute Weapon, Harcourt and Brace, New York:NY, (1946). Chapter 1 and chapter 2.
John Meuller, "The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons," in The Cold War and After.
Robert Jervis, "The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons," in The Cold War and After.

October 3 - Nuclear Proliferation
Kenneth Waltz, "Nuclear Myths and Political Realities," American Political Science Review, 90, 3, (1990).
Scott Sagan, "The Perils of Proliferation", International Security, vol.18, no.4, (1994).

October 5 - Economic Causes of War
Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State, Basic Books, New York:NY, (1986). Chapter 2 and chapters 6-8.
J. A. Hobson, "Imperialism: A Study," in Harrison M. Wright, ed., The New Imperialism, D.C. Heath and Co., Lexington: MA, (1976).
V.I. Lenin, "Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism," in Harrison M. Wright, ed., The New Imperialism, D.C. Heath and Co., Lexington: MA, (1976).

October 10 - FALL BREAK - No Class Meeting

October 12 - Diversionary Wars
Christopher Gelpi. 1997. Democratic Diversions. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 41(2)255-282.
Charles Ostrom and Brian Job, "The President and the Political Use of Force," American Politcal Science Review, 80, 2, (1985):541-566

October 17 - State Structure and War
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 4.
Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition, Cornell University Press, Ithaca:NY, (1993). Chapters 2 and chapter 8.
Stephen Walt, "Revolutions and War," World Politics, vol.44, no.3, (1992).

October 19 - Misperceptions and War
Robert Jervis, "War and Misperception," Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18, 4, (1988)675-700.
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 7.

October 24 - REVIEW SESSION FOR MIDTERM

October 26 - MIDTERM EXAM - In Class

October 31 - Evaluating Theories in Political Science
Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry, Princeton University Press, Princeton: NJ, (1994). Chapters 1, 3, 4 and 6.

November 2 - World War I (Part I)
Jack Snyder, "Civil-Military Relations and the Cult of the Offensive, 1914 and 1984," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.
Steven Van Evera, "The Cult of the Offensive and the First World War," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.
Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War, Chapter 5.

November 7 - World War I (Part II)
Paul Kennedy, "The First World War and the International Power System," International Security, vol.9, no1, (1984).
Scott Sagan, "1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.
Jonathan Shimshoni, "Technology, Military Advantage, and World War I," in Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War.

November 9 - The Cuban Missile Crisis
Graham Allison, "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis," American Political Science Review, vol.63, no.3, (1969). part 1, part2.
Alexander George, "The Cuban Missile Crisis," in Avoiding War. Chapter 11.

November 14 - Post-Crisis US-Soviet Relations Over Cuba
Raymond Garthoff, "Handling the Cienfuegos Crisis," International Security, vol.8, no.1, (Summer 1983).

November 16 - The Six Day War
Janice Stein, "The Arab-Israeli War of 1967: Inadvertent War Through Miscalculated Escalation," in Alexander George, Avoiding War. Chapter 8.
Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The Arab-Israeli War of 1967," in Alexander George, Avoiding War. Chapter 13.

November 21 - The October War
Janice Stein, Psychology and Deterrence, Chapter 3.
Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, "The Arab-Israeli War of 1973," in Alexander George, Avoiding War. Chapter 15

November 23 - THANKSGIVING BREAK - No Class

November 28 - Creating a New Europe
John Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future," in Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven Miller, eds., The Cold War and After.
Stephen Van Evera, "Primed For Peace," in Sean Lynn-Jones and Steven Miller, eds., The Cold War and After.
Charles A. Kupchan and Clifford A. Kupchan, "Concerts, Collective Security, and Future of Europe," International Security, vol.16, no.1, (1991).

November 30 - Public Opinion and Support for War
John Mueller. 1971. "Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam." American Political Science Review. Vol. 65, No. 2. (Jun., 1971), pp. 358-375
Christopher Gelpi, Peter D. Feaver, and Jason Reifler. 2005/2006. "Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq." International Security (Winter 2005/2006).

December 5 - Terrorism and Warfare
Handbook of War Studies II, Chapter 1.
Barry Posen. 2001. "The Struggle against Terrorism: Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics." International Security 26(3).

December 7 - REVIEW SESSION FOR FINAL EXAM

December 12 - Final Paper Due at 9:00 A.M. Please submit papers by email.

December 14 - FINAL EXAM from 7:00 to 12:00 P.M.